Greetings. A weekly update of the Kicking Performance shall be shared here. For a background to the xP-lite tracking, new readers can check out the guide here.
From the first two game weeks, 27 players have made an attempt at goal. For 19 of the 27, there was available data from their previous goal attempts in the 2023 and 2024 league seasons. The 8 "new entrants" so far are Israel Makhoha (Victoria), Marvin Asaba (Heathens), Gracious Mugagga (Victoria), Jacobs Olala (Eagles), Job Wembabazi (Eagles), Timothy Kisiga (Pirates), Ronald Ogwang (Buffaloes) and Hamisi Katumba (Elgon Wolves).
To navigate the challenge of assigning an xP-lite to new entrants, a priori estimation was employed. When flipping a coin, there are two outcomes; a heads or a tail, so a 50% chance you land one or the other is assumed. Same applies to a goal attempt; it's either successful or not. However, rugby union has a 2-point kick and a 3-point kick. Therefore with a 50% chance of landing a 2 pointer and a 50% chance of landing a 3-pointer, the assigned xP-lite for new entrants was set at 1.25.
Without further ado, below are the top performers from the last two game weeks. I have provided the expected points from their respective xP-lite and the kick attempts they had available during their games, the actual points they made, the gain between the actual points and the expectation, and the points gained per kick attempt.
Nkore has gained the most points from his expectation. Coming from a team that employed 8 different players to convert their kicks in the 2024 League, the chances of improving one's success rate was much more difficult at Pirates. But this season so far, he has attempted 13 of Pirates 15 attempts at goal this season (86.7%). By comparison, last year he made just 1 attempt (out of 22) in Pirates' first 4 games, as the primary kicking duties were shared between Kieron Eremu and Frederick Mulindwa, after Ivan Magomu's suspension.
A key benefit of comparing expectations is the marked improvement in performance they display. The success rate can show how good a kicker is but comparing the actual points from the expected gives an indication to improvement in performance.
Ceteris. Paribus.
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