Rugby Premiership Week 4: Points Progression

Greetings. The points progression charts from Game Week 3 of the Nile Special Rugby Premiership. 

For clarity on the team initials used, check the preamble of the Week 2 points progression report here.

Much as the gap between Hippos and Walukuba keeps narrowing, the Hippos still maintain an advantage over their city neighbours. Hippos' matched their points haul from last year, whereas Walukuba were 3 points shot of last year's tally, despite a second consecutive 20+ point performance against Hippos. Yasin Wasswa made 12 points off the boot from an expectation of 11.96 points.

Victoria Sharks handed Warriors their fourth loss of the season. For the third season, we have a promoted team scoring 30+ points in a game. The combined kicking exceeded the expected points for each team.

KOBs' 23 halftime points surpased their previous best against Buffaloes in the last six meetings (21 in 2023). Both teams yielded points close to the average from their previous encounters. Joseph Aredo had a 100% kick success rate, gaining 6.58 points more than his expected points.

Eagles registered their first win of the season, in a 6 try effort against Elgon Wolves. Salim Katumba only managed 3 points off the boot, missing 4 of his 5 attempts at goal. By contrast, Eagles Jason Nuwamanya converted 4 of his 5 attempts and added a try in the win.

Pirates recorded their third 50+ point game against Mongers in their last six meetings. Last year's 17-20 loss remains the only time they have failed to score at least 35 points against Mongers in that stretch. From Week 3's 8/9 kick rate, Robin Odrua could only manage 3 points from the boot on Saturday. William Nkore was perfect from the tee, converting 8 out of 8 for 17 points from the boot. After starting the season with an xP-lite of 0.67 (ranked 46th), Nkore will enter Week 5 with an xP-lite of 1.16, and the most points scored this season (56). He leads all active players in points gained (21.53) and is third in points gained per attempt at goal (0.80 extra points per kick).

Heathens scored 37 points against Rhinos, having averaged 38.6 points in the 5 meetings between the 2 preceding Saturday. Prior to Week 4, Rhinos had scored a total of 3 tries in the last 5 meetings between them and Heathens, going without a try in 3 of those games. But on Saturday they touched down thrice, including the first try of the game. Heathens trailed in a game for the first time this season, which means all 12 teams have at least trailed in a game this season. Both Ivan Kirabo and Malcolm Okello outperformed their expected points on Saturday.

Ceteris. Paribus.